BLUF: The Energy Security Age
In an age of technological competition among major geopolitical powers, control of critical energy resources remains a key advantage for nations looking to rise to the top. AI has ushered in an unprecedented era of innovation and social change not seen since the end of the 20th century, and with it massive resource demands to fuel this boom.
JP Morgan analysts argue the world is entering a “new energy security age,” where power is defined less by barrels and pipelines and more by control over critical minerals, infrastructure, and technologies. That shift has profound consequences for U.S. national security, as China’s chokehold on critical minerals creates vulnerabilities that extend across the defense and industry supply chains, and the clean energy economy.
Beijing has spent decades securing dominance in the mining and processing of lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and graphite – all resources essential to batteries, advanced munitions, and semiconductors. China’s recent export restrictions on gallium, germanium, and graphite underscore its willingness to weaponize these supply chains, especially in the face of a massive American foreign policy push on global trade.
In response, Washington is beginning to move beyond rhetoric. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation is in talks to launch a $5 billion joint fund with Orion Resource Partners to invest directly in mining ventures, while the Pentagon has restarted stockpiling cobalt and expanded rare-earths investment. At the same time, new provisions in the CHIPS and Science Act give the government authority to take equity stakes in early-stage companies that are pioneering next-generation extraction and refining technologies.
These developments signal a recognition that traditional grants and subsidies are insufficient. To compete with China, the U.S. needs bold public-private partnerships, diversification of supply, and rapid scaling of recycling and innovation. As JP Morgan highlights, the strategic contest ahead will hinge not just on energy abundance, but on who controls the infrastructure and intellectual property of the future.
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