BLUF: The End of al-Assad’s Rule

Just last week we wrote about how change, especially in today’s geopolitical landscape, can be rapid, intense, and unpredictable. That very brand of rapid intensity has been on full display over the past several days in Syria, where opposition forces, led by Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), ousted President Bashar al-Assad, sending the former dictator fleeing abroad. 

After 50 years of brutal rule—endless fighting, humanitarian crises, and widespread displacement—Syria, the Middle East, and the world anxiously look to what lies ahead. Although al-Assad’s rule has ended and the world cautiously hopes for the emergence of an inclusive democracy in Syria, many are hedging for the return of repressive Islamic fundamentalism. HTS, the group responsible for al-Assad’s ousting, was born out of al-Qaeda’s Syria affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, and is classified by the Department of State as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.

If history is any reference, the outlook isn’t particularly promising. According to the Freedom House Global Freedom Scores index, none of the nations that toppled their leaders in the 2011 Arab Spring are ‘free’ today. Libya and Yemen offer the most direct comparison to Syria. In Libya, the vacuum left by leader Muammar al-Qaddafi remains unfilled amidst a prolonged civil war. In Yemen, pro-Iranian Houthi rebels have continued fighting a bloody conflict within their borders and against the U.S. and its allies.

In a climate of abundant uncertainty, hoping for the best can only go so far. While many around the world are right to celebrate the end of a repressive regime, the prospect of a free, stable, and democratic Syria remains unrealized.

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