BLUF: A New Age of Nuclear?

Nuclear is, once again, dominating the headlines at a clip we have rarely seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Let’s review:

Iran is as close as ever to crossing the threshold towards obtaining a nuclear warhead. China has undertaken a rapid nuclear force expansion and modernization project, deploying up to 500 warheads, with the aim to reach twice that number by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, Russia has repeatedly threatened to use the world's largest nuclear arsenal to advance its interests, even going so far as to launch a modified conventional ICBM named “Oreshnik” against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro back in December.

American partners have acknowledged the threat, with newly elected Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz going so far as to say Germany, France, and Britain may need to “share” nuclear weapons. 

To be clear, the sentiment isn’t isolated. Allies like Japan and South Korea have discussed the possibility of developing their own nuclear deterrent to counter emerging threats from North Korea and China, highlighting a growing fear that America’s nuclear umbrella may be—at least partially—closed.

Our allies may be right to worry. All three legs of America’s nuclear triad are nearing the end of their lifecycle, with limited modernization programs in place to address the issue. With the 30 year cost of modernizing our nuclear forces sitting at $2 trillion dollars, the Trump administration is already exploring how to cut costs without compromising our deterrence. President Trump’s call for trilateral non-proliferation talks with Russia and China, a proposition received positively by Beijing, suggests that recent escalations could lead to an opportunity for the world to step back from the proverbial brink.

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